European intelligence officials are issuing their starkest warnings yet about potential Russian attempts to test Nato's resolve through attacks on European soil. These acts of sabotage, believed to be orchestrated by Russia, are designed to disrupt support for Ukraine and fall below the threshold for a direct military response. The warnings come as Vladimir Putin consolidates power and far-right parties gain traction in Germany.
The escalating campaign of sabotage attributed to Russia poses a significant risk to European stability and the continued support for Ukraine, potentially drawing Nato members into a prolonged period of heightened tension and indirect conflict.
European intelligence officials are issuing their starkest warnings yet about potential Russian attempts to test Nato's resolve with attacks on European soil, in what is described as a "hybrid or shadow war" designed to disrupt support for Ukraine. These acts of sabotage, believed to be orchestrated by Russia, deliberately fall below the threshold for a direct military response.
Sources in the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Sweden have suggested a potential attack could come within "months, not years." This follows recent warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron, who has summoned party leaders for an emergency meeting to discuss similar concerns. Shaun Walker, a special correspondent for eastern Europe, Ukraine and intelligence matters, noted that the willingness of officials to speak on the record suggests they want to send a clear message.
The systematic campaign of sabotage has escalated since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, often making conclusive proof of Russian involvement difficult due to the recruitment of local individuals online. Recent incidents include fires at defence facilities in Italy, Bulgaria, Estonia, and Slovakia, an explosives-laden drone found at Germany's Leipzig airport, and coffins left under the Eiffel Tower in France. Danish authorities have warned of Russian recruitment efforts to sabotage defence firms tied to Ukraine.
In response to some incidents, Germany expelled over 150 Russian diplomats and promised tighter border controls. The EU has also imposed sanctions on Russian banks and entities aiding Moscow in evading restrictions, and is considering measures against Russia's "shadow fleet." However, some officials worry that more decisive responses could risk military escalation, as Russia aims to avoid direct conflict with Nato.
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