Key facts
- European intelligence officials are warning of potential Russian attempts to test Nato resolve with attacks on European soil.
- These acts of sabotage are believed to trace back to Russia but deliberately fall below the threshold for military response.
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that intelligence assessments suggest Russia might launch an attack with drones or missiles on Nato territory in the coming months.
- A systematic campaign of sabotage has developed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, designed to seed chaos and anxiety among Ukraine's allies.
- Recent incidents include unexplained fires at defence facilities in Italy, Bulgaria, Estonia, and Slovakia, and an explosives-laden drone found at Germany's Leipzig airport.
- EU nations are increasingly willing to clamp down on Russia's "shadow fleet" of ships illegally carrying Russian oil.
European intelligence officials are issuing their starkest warnings yet about potential Russian attempts to test Nato's resolve with attacks on European soil, in what is described as a "hybrid or shadow war" designed to disrupt support for Ukraine. These acts of sabotage, believed to be orchestrated by Russia, deliberately fall below the threshold for a direct military response.
Sources in the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Sweden have suggested a potential attack could come within "months, not years." This follows recent warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron, who has summoned party leaders for an emergency meeting to discuss similar concerns. Shaun Walker, a special correspondent for eastern Europe, Ukraine and intelligence matters, noted that the willingness of officials to speak on the record suggests they want to send a clear message.
The systematic campaign of sabotage has escalated since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, often making conclusive proof of Russian involvement difficult due to the recruitment of local individuals online. Recent incidents include fires at defence facilities in Italy, Bulgaria, Estonia, and Slovakia, an explosives-laden drone found at Germany's Leipzig airport, and coffins left under the Eiffel Tower in France. Danish authorities have warned of Russian recruitment efforts to sabotage defence firms tied to Ukraine.
In response to some incidents, Germany expelled over 150 Russian diplomats and promised tighter border controls. The EU has also imposed sanctions on Russian banks and entities aiding Moscow in evading restrictions, and is considering measures against Russia's "shadow fleet." However, some officials worry that more decisive responses could risk military escalation, as Russia aims to avoid direct conflict with Nato.