Key facts
- European defence planners believe the continent cannot sustain a prolonged war of attrition with Russia due to public unpreparedness.
- Concerns are rising that Russia is winning a hybrid war, influencing European populist movements.
- A proposed five-nation European defence coordination role, including the UK, is endangered by populist surges.
- Germany has blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig airport.
- Italy's foreign minister has warned of daily cyber-attacks and potential Russian interference in upcoming elections.
Defence planners in Europe are expressing significant concern that the continent is ill-equipped to sustain a prolonged war of attrition against Russia, primarily due to a perceived lack of public readiness and appetite for such a conflict. This pessimism, voiced at a conference on European military coordination, reflects a broader worry that Russia may be gaining the upper hand in a 'hybrid war,' thereby limiting NATO's strategic options should military hostilities erupt.
The rise of populist political forces across Europe's major military states is also seen as a threat to proposals for a new coordination role involving five European countries, including the UK, especially as the United States signals a potential reduction in its commitment to Europe's conventional defence.
Defence officials speaking at a forum convened by the Munich Security Conference (MSC) indicated that European publics may not support a protracted war, necessitating NATO's planning to focus on a relatively swift conflict. Some Western officials have privately admitted a failure to adequately educate their populations about the nature and scale of the hybrid conflict with Russia, leaving ministers in a difficult position to justify increased defence spending over welfare programs.
Recent events, such as Germany blaming Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig airport, have added urgency to these discussions. The suspected perpetrator reportedly entered Europe using an Italian tourist visa. The MSC has been advocating for closer collaboration among major European military powers, including the UK, to bolster European defence planning, particularly as Washington considers shifting more responsibility for conventional defence to Europe.
Italy, in particular, is reportedly concerned about Russian hybrid warfare's impact on its domestic politics. Italian officials have warned of daily cyber-attacks and the potential for Russian interference in upcoming national elections. They acknowledge Russia's ability to exploit societal issues and operate across various domains, including social media and AI.
Despite these challenges, efforts are underway to strengthen European defence capabilities. The E5 group of European defence ministers is working towards jointly procuring advanced military systems. Ukraine's significant drone production capacity and its modern army are also highlighted as valuable assets in the evolving security landscape.