Key facts
- Russia likely has resources to continue its war through 2027 and 2028, according to Ukraine's military intelligence.
- Key economic challenges for Russia include labor shortages, a growing federal budget deficit, and a deteriorating banking system.
- Ukrainian strikes have disabled approximately 40% of Russia's oil-refining infrastructure.
- Russia has banned exports of diesel and gasoline due to resulting fuel shortages.
- Russia's budget deficit increased by 40% in the first half of the year, reaching $82 billion.
- Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea logistics are impacting Russia's grain exports, a key revenue source.
Russia likely possesses sufficient resources to sustain its war effort through 2028, despite significant economic weakening since the full-scale invasion began, according to Oleh Ivashchenko, chief of Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR).
In an interview with Ukrinform, Ivashchenko highlighted critical issues facing the Russian economy, including labor shortages, a widening federal budget deficit, and instability within its banking system. "At the same time, it still has enough resources to wage war against Ukraine. We do not rule out that these resources will last through 2027 and 2028," he stated.
Kyiv's strategy has increasingly focused on long-range drone attacks targeting Russian oil refineries, depots, factories, and tankers. These strikes have disabled approximately 40% of Russia's oil-refining capacity, leading to domestic fuel shortages and prompting an export ban on diesel and gasoline. Ukraine has also broadened its targets to include warehouses of online retailers like Ozon and Wildberries.
Russia has been grappling with fiscal pressures, with record military spending contributing to a 40% surge in its budget deficit during the first half of the year, a situation Russian President Vladimir Putin described as not "critical." Ivashchenko asserted that Ukrainian strikes are a factor in this deficit, which currently stands at $82 billion.
Furthermore, Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics in the Black Sea have disrupted grain exports. Ivashchenko noted that Russia produces about 130 million tons of grain annually, with 80 million tons for domestic consumption and the remainder for export. He indicated that Kyiv views these grain exports as a vital resource supporting the Russian economy and its ongoing war.