Key facts
- Europe is facing an increase in suspected Russian hybrid warfare activities, including drone attacks and sabotage.
- These operations are often difficult to trace conclusively to Moscow due to remote recruitment methods.
- Germany has become quicker to publicly attribute recent incidents to Russia.
- European governments are considering expanding intelligence agency powers to counter these threats.
- Measures taken so far, such as diplomatic expulsions and vessel seizures, are seen by some as insufficient deterrents.
Europe is confronting a resurgence of suspected Russian hybrid warfare, characterized by sabotage and attacks that deliberately remain below the threshold of conventional conflict. Recent incidents, including a drone discovery at Germany's Leipzig airport and suspected sabotage in Poland, highlight Moscow's strategy to sow chaos and undermine support for Ukraine. These operations are increasingly organized through remote recruitment, often via Telegram channels and paid in cryptocurrency, making them difficult to trace conclusively back to Russian intelligence services.
European governments are responding with increased speed in attributing these actions to Moscow, as seen in Germany's swift public blame following a second incident at Leipzig. However, the punitive measures have so far been cautious, with Germany opting for diplomatic responses like closing Russian cultural centers, which were met with reciprocal actions from Moscow. This measured approach underscores the challenge of imposing meaningful costs on Russia without risking direct military confrontation.
Europe's capacity for retaliation is further constrained by the limited powers of many national intelligence agencies, which are primarily tasked with intelligence gathering rather than covert operations. To address this, several EU states, including the Netherlands, are proposing legislation to expand surveillance powers. More tangible actions have been seen in the detention of vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet, with Norway recently seizing a Russian vessel at Ukraine's request.
Critics argue that these measures are insufficient to deter Moscow, with some EU lawmakers and officials from Poland and the Baltic states pushing for a more assertive stance. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski emphasized that hybrid warfare includes serious acts like assassinations and arson, and that Russia must understand such actions have consequences. He also acknowledged, with a touch of humor, the limitations of existing diplomatic tools, noting the exhaustion of consulates to close as a form of retaliation.