Key facts
- An EU official report casts doubt on the bloc's ability to achieve defence readiness by 2030.
- The report cites reliance on the US and fragmented national defence systems as key challenges.
- EU defence spending increased by 79% between 2020 and 2025.
- A significant majority of EU defence acquisitions (78%) were sourced from outside the bloc between February 2022 and June 2023.
- Ukraine has requested EU funding for US-made Patriot air defence systems, requiring a waiver from 'Buy European' rules.
The European Union's capacity to defend itself against a potential invasion by 2030 faces significant hurdles, according to a report by the European Court of Auditors (ECA). While the bloc has improved its preparedness since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, achieving its defence readiness goal remains challenging due to a continued reliance on the United States and the fragmentation of national defence systems.
Marek Opioła, an ECA member who led the review, highlighted persistent difficulties such as "fragmented national systems or industrial bottlenecks" and the ongoing dependence on the US. He emphasized that substantial progress could still be made if defence spending were sharply increased and ammunition production rapidly expanded.
In response to the perceived Russian threat and to meet NATO spending targets, EU member states collectively increased defence spending by 79% between 2020 and 2025. The EU also fulfilled its commitment to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of ammunition, albeit eight months behind its target date. The 2030 defence readiness goal was established after intelligence assessments suggested Russia might be prepared for large-scale conflict in Europe around that time.
The report defined defence readiness as achieving "strategic autonomy" and the capability for independent high-intensity warfare. Auditors noted improvements compared to a similar review in 2019, but warned that fragmented defence industries and insufficient intergovernmental cooperation could lead to duplicated spending or persistent gaps in military capabilities. The report cited the abandonment of a joint Franco-German fighter jet project as an example of dysfunction, though not explicitly mentioned in the report.
Between February 2022 and June 2023, 78% of defence acquisitions by EU governments were sourced from outside the bloc, with the US accounting for 63%. This reliance on US suppliers was understandable given the urgent need for quickly available capabilities, though auditors observed early signs of improvement in the EU's ability to supply its own needs.
While the EU aims for common defence spending to benefit domestic industries, flexibilities are allowed when European production is insufficient. Ukraine has requested an exemption from these 'Buy European' rules to acquire US-made Patriot interceptors using an EU support loan, a request that requires member state approval. The European Commission hopes for a swift decision on this matter.