Key facts
- Coal is projected to generate 10,974 TWh of electricity in 2026, nearly one-third of the global total.
- Natural gas is the second-largest source at 6,976 TWh, followed by hydropower, solar, wind, and nuclear.
- Renewables collectively are expected to overtake coal in 2026 for the first time.
- The U.S.-Iran war has driven up natural gas prices, making coal more attractive for power generation.
- China and India are key to coal's continued dominance, with coal supplying over 50% of their electricity.
- Global power demand is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, increasing the challenge of replacing coal.
Despite significant investments and installations of wind turbines and solar panels, coal is projected to remain the world's largest single source of electricity generation through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA forecasts that coal-fired power plants will generate 10,974 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2026, representing nearly one-third of the projected global electricity production. Natural gas is expected to be a distant second, followed by hydropower, solar, wind, and nuclear power.
This continued reliance on coal presents a challenge for the global energy transition. While renewables collectively are anticipated to surpass coal in 2026, this includes all renewable sources combined, with no single renewable source approaching coal's output. The ongoing U.S.-Iran war has further bolstered coal's position by driving up natural gas prices, making coal a more competitive option for power generators that can switch fuels.
Coal's dominance is increasingly concentrated in Asia, with China and India being major consumers. China alone accounts for over half of the world's coal-fired electricity, and India remains heavily dependent on coal for its power needs. Both nations are simultaneously expanding renewable capacity and meeting rising energy demand, which sustains their coal consumption.
While solar and wind power are growing rapidly, they face a substantial head start from coal. Even with significant growth, combined wind and solar generation is expected to be less than coal generation in 2026. The challenge is compounded by rising global power demand, which means new renewable capacity must first meet new demand before it can displace existing coal generation.