Key facts
- Global electric vehicle sales have surged this year due to oil supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel prices.
- Analysts at Wood Mackenzie have revised their forecasts, now expecting EVs to constitute 25% of the global fleet by 2040.
- A high-case scenario from Wood Mackenzie, dubbed 'electric shock,' suggests EV adoption could accelerate significantly beyond base expectations.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that electric vehicles could account for nearly 30% of all car sales worldwide this year.
- IEA data indicates a substantial rebound in EV sales in the second quarter, with a 35% increase over the first quarter.
Global electric vehicle sales have seen a significant surge this year, driven by oil supply disruptions in the Middle East and the resulting price shocks. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie suggest that this accelerated EV adoption trend is likely to persist, potentially pushing the share of EVs in the global passenger fleet higher than previously anticipated.
Wood Mackenzie has adjusted its base-case scenario, now forecasting that EVs will represent 25% of the global fleet by 2040, up from the current 4%. The consultancy has also outlined a high-case scenario, dubbed 'electric shock,' where global EV adoption could accelerate by 50% above the base case. This scenario assumes converging forces of supportive government policies, increased consumer switching due to high gasoline prices, and faster technological advancements.
David Brown, Director of Energy Transition Research at Wood Mackenzie, stated that if these forces align, the impact on EV adoption could be dramatic. The 'electric shock' scenario could lead to a drop in global oil demand to approximately 99 million barrels per day by 2040, about 5 million barrels below their base case, potentially causing the early closure of around 40 oil refineries worldwide.
In China, the leading EV market, the 'electric shock' scenario could fast-track adoption. With additional policy measures, including purchase tax exemptions and credits, the total cost of ownership for EVs could decrease by about 30%, potentially boosting annual sales from 8.9 million in 2025 to 29.9 million by 2040. The consultancy noted that the United States risks falling behind if it does not establish advanced battery technologies and competitive supply chains, coupled with targeted policy support for domestic manufacturing.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in May that EVs could account for nearly 30% of all car sales globally this year. In an update to its report, the IEA stated in July that following a slow start, EV sales rebounded sharply in the second quarter, increasing by 35% compared to the first quarter, as the Middle East crisis highlighted fuel price volatility. Record-high EV sales were observed in 50 countries during the second quarter, with substantial growth in markets like Brazil, India, Australia, and Vietnam.
BloombergNEF's Electric Vehicle Outlook report anticipates that over a quarter, or 27%, of cars sold globally in 2026 will be electric, a significant increase from 9% five years ago. They project that more than half, 52%, of all passenger vehicles worldwide will be electric by 2035.