Key facts
- China's diplomatic strategy is being tested by the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
- Beijing has publicly supported Iran's right to self-defense, straining relations with Israel and Western allies.
- China is a primary buyer of Iranian oil, with over 80% of exports directed to the country.
- The conflict has led to a surge in global oil prices, impacting energy-importing nations.
- China is actively seeking to position itself as a global mediator in the conflict.
China's long-standing policy of balancing economic ties with both Iran and Israel is facing unprecedented challenges amid the escalating conflict between the two nations. The conflict, marked by Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent Iranian self-defense actions, has pushed China to publicly align more closely with Tehran, a move that strains its relationship with Israel and Western allies.
Historically, China has pursued a strategy of "dual engagement," strengthening economic ties with Israel while building a strategic partnership with Iran, particularly in energy and security. However, recent events, including Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February 2026, have prompted a significant shift. China's UN Ambassador, Fu Cong, condemned Israel's actions, and President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated support for Iran's right to self-defense. This stance is underpinned by China's substantial economic reliance on Iran, with over 80% of Iran's oil exports, averaging 1.38 million barrels per day, going to China. The 2021 partnership agreement further deepens this energy dependence and integrates Iran into China's Belt and Road Initiative.
This alignment, however, carries significant risks. China-Israel relations, once strong in technology and infrastructure, are now strained, with Israel and its Western allies viewing China's position as partisan. While Iran sees China as a key partner against the West, it acknowledges Beijing's reluctance to provide direct military assistance. The conflict's immediate impact has been felt across Asia and the Global South, with oil prices soaring to over $75 per barrel, triggering inflation and increasing the fiscal burden on energy-importing countries. Nations like Indonesia, India, and ASEAN members have taken steps to evacuate citizens and bolster energy reserves.
China is actively seeking to leverage the situation to enhance its role as a global mediator, advocating for a political solution and multilateral dialogue through various international forums. However, the region's instability, particularly threats to the Strait of Hormuz, poses a substantial risk to China's energy security and global trade networks. The volatility in energy prices could slow China's economic growth and exacerbate domestic inflation. Despite efforts to diversify energy sources, the Middle East remains indispensable to China's long-term energy security.