Australia Wheat Crop Finds El Niño Bark Worse Than Its Bite

Australia's wheat crop has held up far better than early El Niño warnings of a 50% loss suggested, helped by early rain and fertilizer. Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing & Execution Sales, walks through how Australian wheat production estimates compare with the alarmist El Niño scenario and what the harvest window means for the crop. Wheat production estimates for Australia have ranged from 25 to 31 million metric tons in recent months, with ABARES at 29.9 million and a consensus forming around 30 to 31 million. Weather analysts have raised the odds of El Niño from 40% to 90% since June and see its intensity building from October to December, possibly lasting until March. Because the Australian wheat harvest runs from October to December, dry weather in that window can help harvest progress rather than hold it back. 0:00 El Niño Timing in Question 1:06 Australia Wheat Defies Doom 1:50 Rain and Fertilizer Pay Off 2:15 Dry Weather as Harvest Ally Discover Actionable Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: https://shop.stonex.com/collections/all?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_bertrand_oesterle&utm_content=share Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #Wheat #StoneX #BertrandOesterle #ElNino --------- Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official Visit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts. Visit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social