Fed Rate Hike Odds Hinge on NFP as Dollar Holds Its Range

The Fed December rate hike hinges on nonfarm payrolls, after hotter core PCE and Q3 GDP data met a Federal Reserve that chose to hold rates. Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Senior Market Analyst, explains how payrolls, the U.S. midterm elections and rate decisions from the Bank of England and the RBA are shaping currencies and stocks. The U.S. midterm elections put control of Congress in play, and a Republican hold, a Democratic sweep or a split Congress each carries different implications for stocks, Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. A gridlocked Congress, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans keeping the Senate, is framed as the most market-friendly outcome. With a Bank of England rate hike largely priced in, the pound's reaction rests on the vote split and updated growth and inflation projections. In equities, AI spending concerns weighed on Alphabet and Amazon after earnings, while Apple has become a hedge to the AI trade heading into its own results. 0:00 Hot PCE Keeps the Fed Guessing 1:35 Fed December Hike Rides on NFP 2:13 Midterms Split Stocks, Dollar 3:45 Dollar Stuck in a Tight Range 5:37 BoE Hike Priced, Pound Waits 9:12 RBA Hike Puts Aussie in Play 12:05 Apple Turns AI Trade Hedge 13:40 Nasdaq Support Gives Way Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_fiona_cincotta&utm_content=share Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #FederalReserve #StoneX #FionaCincotta #NFP #Forex --------- Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official Visit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts. Visit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social