Key facts
- More than $1.4 billion has been wagered on the midterms, according to the platforms and industry research.
- Noah Poser said he has six-figure wagers on the line and estimates profits of as much as $30,000 if he wins.
- Adjacent Markets raised $2.5 million this summer to build tradable indexes from prediction contracts, co-founder Lucas Kohorst said.
- Adjacent's Democrat Political Futures Index climbed 2.38% in the seven days to November 3; its Republican counterpart rose 0.14%.
- Kalshi joined the Options Clearing Corporation as a silver-level sponsor of the Futures Industry Association's annual conference.
- Nevada has severely restricted prediction market offerings, the report said.
Betting on the US midterm elections reached record levels for US election betting, with more than $1.4 billion wagered on the races, according to the platforms and industry research. Polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
Noah Poser, 28, who works in financial technology, said he has wagers with a total value in the six figures on the line, betting on a strong showing by Democrats. He entered the bets a few months ago when odds were at a much better price and estimates profits of as much as $30,000 if he wins. "It's a numbers game; you have to strip your emotions out of it," said Poser, the author of a self-published book about his prediction markets strategies.
Darius Gamble, 51, of Gardendale, Alabama, said he has been betting on the platforms for two or three months but will not wager more than $20 on anything. "It is gambling, just disguised as predictions," said Gamble, a human resources business partner.
Yadin Eldar, a 22-year-old student at Florida State University, anticipates large-scale Democratic victories but is placing contrarian bets on races where his analysis shows the odds of Republican candidates winning are "extremely underpriced." He said a bet on Republicans winning in Florida could return a 50-55% profit. "The emotional roller coaster is extremely dangerous," he said. "It never does me any good. I panic sell or panic buy."
More than 2,000 prediction markets traders, investors and platforms gathered in New York in October for a conference called NEXTPredict, which featured several sessions devoted to election contracts. "It's a very different vibe than we had in 2024, when prediction markets were really new and kind of upstarts," said Lucas Kohorst, co-founder of Adjacent Markets, a platform that this summer raised $2.5 million to help build out its business aggregating contracts into tradable indexes or benchmarks.
Adjacent's Democrat Political Futures Index has climbed 2.38% in the last seven days, while its Republican counterpart has edged up 0.14%. Kohorst and his team decided late last week to fly from New York to Chicago to attend an election eve watch party hosted by Kalshi, a top prediction market that joined financial market stalwarts like the Options Clearing Corporation as a silver-level sponsor of the Futures Industry Association's annual conference. Kalshi did not respond to requests for comment on the event.