Key facts
- Cryptocurrency groups have spent more than $50 million to defeat Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown.
- Beacon Policy Advisors says 10 governors' races will determine the course of $2.5 trillion in planned AI infrastructure investment.
- Kansas Republican Senator Roger Marshall, a leading proponent of swipe-fee caps, is in a close race against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
- Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton has led multistate investigations into Wall Street firms over climate and diversity policies.
- Nebraska Republican Senator Pete Ricketts sits on the Senate Banking Committee and has supported crypto-friendly legislation.
- House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill is in a tight race against Democrat Chris Jones.
Wall Street and financial market participants are monitoring this year's US midterm elections not only for control of Congress but for a set of unusually competitive races that could decide the fortunes of key political allies and adversaries of the financial industry. The outcomes could shape policy on cryptocurrency, credit cards, financial regulation and the artificial-intelligence investment boom. A Democratic victory in one or both chambers would hand the party tools it plans to use to probe financial companies and their regulators, while several gubernatorial contests could determine trillions of dollars of AI infrastructure investment.
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown, a veteran Wall Street critic and crypto skeptic, is seeking to return to the Senate after losing his seat in 2024. He faces Republican US Senator Jon Husted, who replaced JD Vance when Vance became vice president. Cryptocurrency groups have spent more than $50 million to defeat Brown, making the race one of the most expensive and closely watched tests of the industry's political clout. Brown served 18 years in the Senate before losing; if Democrats win the Senate and grant him seniority based on prior service, he could again lead the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees financial regulators, or take a prominent role on the Agriculture Committee, which handles some crypto policy. Recent polls show Brown leading by as many as 5 points or tied, and prediction markets on Friday priced a Brown victory at 69.5%.
Kansas, not historically a battleground, has shifted enough toward Democrats that Republican Senator Roger Marshall is in a close race against Democrat Adam Hamilton. While Wall Street usually favors Republicans, Marshall has been a leading proponent of legislation capping the swipe fees banks charge retailers for credit card transactions. Banks have fought such caps for years, worried about profits, and fear the issue is one of the few that unites Democrats and Republicans. A recent poll has Hamilton leading narrowly, while prediction markets priced a Marshall victory at 55%.
In Texas, one of the most expensive Senate races in history pits Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico in a contest widely seen as a test of Democrats' ability to make inroads in traditionally Republican territory; a Talarico victory would mark the first Democratic win in a statewide Texas race in decades. Paxton has had a tumultuous history with Wall Street, cracking down on banks and asset managers he accused of "woke" left-leaning lending and investment policies, and leading multistate investigations, in some cases suing. Recent polls show Talarico leading by between 2 and 8 points, and prediction markets priced a Talarico victory at 66.8%.