US-Iran Conflict Risks Decades-Long Energy Shock for Asia

The escalating conflict between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is prompting a significant geopolitical shift across Asia, with potential long-term energy shock implications. Security experts argue that the crisis, which affects a chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil passes, could reshape regional power balances more profoundly than the war in Ukraine or tensions over Taiwan.

Nations in Southeast Asia, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy imports, are increasingly unable to ignore the implications of the Hormuz tensions. Analysts suggest that the crisis is altering regional calculations regarding security, diplomacy, and alliances. Lester Joseph Buitizon, a threat intelligence analyst, noted that ASEAN is moving toward Russia for energy reliance, even if not for security.

Recent military operations between the U.S. and Iran have intensified focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims control, while the U.S. states its air strikes aim to degrade Iranian military capabilities used against commercial shipping. Despite a U.S. military presence, shipping companies remain hesitant to transit the strait, indicating a challenge in restoring commercial confidence.

The Philippines, importing over 90 percent of its oil from the Middle East, faces immediate economic and political concerns from these disruptions. Despite being a close U.S. treaty ally, the Marcos administration is exploring increased Russian crude access and long-term energy cooperation. Buitizon suggests that if even a close U.S. ally engages Moscow for energy security, more neutral countries like Indonesia and Malaysia are likely to do the same, potentially diminishing the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia.

Vincent Kyle Parada, a defense research analyst, noted that the traditional ASEAN strategy of hedging East and West—seeking economic growth from China and security from the U.S.—is blurring. He pointed to the Iran crisis as evidence that economic and national security are becoming inseparable. Parada also suggested that U.S. policy decisions, including reduced regional development assistance and trade tensions, have weakened Washington's influence, creating opportunities for China to expand its economic reach.