Iran conflict strains Southeast Asia's trust in US, diplomats say

Analysts suggest that the perceived unreliability and unpredictability of US engagement, coupled with recent policy decisions like reduced regional development assistance and trade tensions, have weakened Washington's standing. This has created opportunities for China to expand its economic influence, with some diplomats viewing Beijing as a more dependable, albeit arrogant, partner. The Philippines, for example, imports over 90% of its oil from the Middle East and has begun exploring increased Russian crude access.

Despite these shifts, a complete pivot to China is considered unlikely, as many Southeast Asian nations still view US engagement as crucial for balancing China's growing military presence. The overarching strategy for the region appears to be diversification of partnerships to mitigate economic risks and avoid overdependence on either major power.