Key facts
- US forces are set to withdraw from their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday.
- The US military presence in Iraq lasted over two decades.
- Iran and its allies view the US withdrawal as a strategic victory.
- Iraqi security experts believe the withdrawal could increase Iran's influence.
- Concerns exist that the withdrawal could allow Islamic State to regroup.
- US forces returned to Iraq in 2014 to combat Islamic State.
US forces are preparing to withdraw from their final bases in Iraq by Wednesday, concluding a military presence that began with the 2003 invasion. The departure is being framed as a significant strategic victory by Iran and its allied militias, who have long sought to expel American troops from the region.
Iraqi security analysts suggest the withdrawal could grant Iran and its proxies greater influence over the country's security and political landscape, potentially creating a vacuum that other groups, including Islamic State, could exploit. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst, noted that the US military presence had acted as a counterweight to Tehran's influence.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed factions, described the US withdrawal as a "historic victory" and a "crushing defeat for the American project," asserting that Iraq's sovereignty is secured by its people and resistance, not foreign forces.
While the eventual departure of US forces is broadly popular in Iraq, some express concerns that the withdrawal is premature. Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader, stated that Iraq may not be fully ready to assume the security file independently and that creating a vacuum is a source of fear for many Iraqis.
American forces first invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein, withdrawing in 2011. They returned in 2014 to assist Iraqi forces in defeating Islamic State. In recent years, Iraq has been a complex geopolitical arena where both the US and Iran maintained alliances, sometimes using the country as a proxy battlefield. The US killed top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 strike in Baghdad, and Iran-backed groups have repeatedly targeted US bases.
Iran views the withdrawal as a win for its "axis of resistance" across the Middle East. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, a deputy chairman of Iran's National Security Commission, stated that lasting security would prevail once Americans leave the region and welcomed the troop pullout.
Some Iraqi security officials worry that the US departure could embolden Islamic State fighters, who, despite the defeat of their caliphate, maintain sleeper cell networks. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani noted increased activity by IS sleeper cells following the withdrawal announcement. Iraqi security officials also indicated that a suspected IS cell was preparing suicide attacks to coincide with the pullout, highlighting concerns about the group's ability to exploit security gaps.