Key facts
- The U.S. government asserts that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively reopened for oil transit.
- On Tuesday, approximately 18 million barrels of oil reportedly moved through the strait.
- This volume is close to the roughly 20 million barrels per day that transited before the recent conflict.
- Independent data from Kpler and Lloyd's List Intelligence show considerably lower commodity-vessel crossings.
- U.S. military data, including JMIC, reports higher numbers of facilitated vessels, but these counts differ from commercial trackers.
- The difficulty in verifying the numbers stems from different counting methodologies and a rise in 'dark' traffic.
The U.S. government has stated that oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively resumed, with reports indicating approximately 18 million barrels of oil crossed the vital waterway on Tuesday. This figure approaches the roughly 20 million barrels per day that moved through the strait prior to the recent conflict.
However, independent verification of Tuesday's reported volume is proving difficult. Commercial shipping data providers offer conflicting numbers. Kpler recorded 11 visible commodity-vessel crossings on Tuesday, while Lloyd's List Intelligence reported an average of about 12 transits per day between August 26 and September 1.
U.S. military data presents a different picture. JMIC stated that 44 U.S.-facilitated vessels crossed on September 1 and 2, averaging 22 per day. This contrasts with its independent tracking, which showed only single-digit numbers of vessels moving in each direction daily. These discrepancies are partly attributed to the counting of different categories of vessels by various entities.
Analysts note that a significant portion of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is currently operating 'dark,' meaning their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals are not publicly broadcast. The U.S. military possesses advanced surveillance capabilities, including convoy manifests, radar, satellites, and airborne surveillance, which commercial AIS trackers lack. Commercial services also tend to filter out smaller and non-cargo vessels that may be included in military counts, further complicating direct comparisons.
Without more accessible and standardized data, it remains uncertain whether Washington's figures are accurate, and cracking the code of Hormuz vessel tracking could become a lucrative endeavor for data analysts.