Key facts
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of potential Russian drone or missile strikes against NATO allies in fall and winter.
- Tusk stated that Russia's aim would be to weaken NATO's integrity and sow doubt about Article 5's practical application.
- Intelligence assessments from NATO, Ukraine, and Poland suggest Russia will step up attacks against Ukraine and its allies.
- Tusk expressed concern that some Western politicians may not prioritize defending Eastern European NATO members.
- Russia is expected to carry out continuous, high-intensity strikes on Ukrainian cities and logistics infrastructure.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on Thursday that Russia could launch drone or missile strikes in the coming months against countries supporting Ukraine, potentially presenting them as accidents. Speaking in parliament, Tusk indicated that intelligence assessments from NATO, Ukraine, and Poland suggest that Russia will intensify attacks on Ukraine and its allies, including Poland, in the upcoming fall and winter. Tusk stated that Russia's objective is to 'weaken NATO’s integrity' and convince member states that Article 5, which mandates collective defense, is more theoretical than practical. He expressed concern that some politicians in the United States and Europe might not be fully committed to defending Eastern European NATO members like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia. Tusk also noted that some political groups in Europe are allegedly 'waiting for an excuse' to avoid defending these nations in the event of a conflict. The warning comes as Tusk described the coming fall and winter months as potentially 'tragically critical' for Ukraine, with Russia anticipated to conduct sustained, high-intensity strikes on major Ukrainian cities and essential logistics infrastructure. These attacks have recently intensified, extending to western Ukraine near the Polish border, with Russia increasing its use of jet-powered drones that Ukraine finds difficult to intercept.