Key facts
- Donald Trump will not win this year's Nobel Peace Prize.
- Experts believe Trump's past lobbying and criticism may influence the committee's decision.
- The Nobel Peace Prize announcement is scheduled for October 9.
- Potential recipients include Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, and Francesca Albanese.
- The committee may choose a safe or a defiant laureate in response to Trump's challenges to the international order.
US President Donald Trump will not be awarded this year's Nobel Peace Prize, but his past actions and influence may still shape the committee's decision, according to experts. Last year's award to Maria Corina Machado, who later gave her medal to Trump, and Trump's own lobbying efforts for the prize, have made the committee mindful of potential pressure.
Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, suggested that the committee might consider whether awarding the prize to a particular individual could put them under pressure from Trump, potentially leading them to choose a less controversial figure. Experts have suggested potential laureates such as Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court (ICC), the International Court of Justice (ICJ), or Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories.
Pope Leo has been noted for his advocacy against war, his work on AI, and his humanitarian efforts. Albanese has faced criticism from the US and Israel for her stance on the conflict in Gaza and the occupation of the West Bank.
Alternatively, the committee might opt for a safe, uncontroversial choice to avoid antagonizing Trump, such as Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms or the NGO Save the Children. However, historian Oeivind Stenersen noted that the committee is also under scrutiny to uphold international law and human rights in the face of Trump's challenges to the global order. An award to the ICC or ICJ could be seen as a statement in defense of these principles, especially as Washington prepares sanctions against the ICC.
Trump himself was reportedly nominated by leaders from Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan, though his chances are considered low. Nobel laureate Maria Ressa commented that "bullies don't run the world" and that might does not make right, in response to Trump's pressure on the committee.