Key facts
- A Conservative policy document overestimated the cost of net zero by nearly £500bn.
- The document cited a cost of £957bn for net zero, while the actual figure is £478bn.
- The error appears to stem from double-counting figures on a spreadsheet.
- The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has offered to discuss its advice with Kemi Badenoch.
- The CCC's latest estimate for net zero costs is £110bn.
A policy document released by the Conservative party for its conference in Birmingham has been found to have significantly overestimated the cost of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The document, titled The Right Way, stated that estimates of the cost had varied enormously, citing the Climate Change Committee (CCC) as estimating its route to net zero would cost £957bn.
However, the CCC, the government's climate change advisers, has stated that the figures in its own Sixth Carbon Budget report actually total £478bn. The apparent error seems to have arisen from a spreadsheet where a row showing totals for each individual column was included, effectively doubling the figures. A CCC spokesperson said they did not recognize the £957bn number and reiterated an offer to discuss their advice.
The CCC's most recent analysis puts the expected cost of achieving net zero by 2050 at approximately £110bn, or about £4bn a year, which represents 0.2% of GDP. The error was identified by the publication Carbon Brief, which then informed The Guardian. It is possible the Conservatives copied the incorrect figure without verification, as similar numbers appeared in a report by the right-wing thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs and an article in The Spectator.
Kemi Badenoch, whose office produced the document, is quoted in the foreword noting her background as an engineer and the importance of correctly diagnosing issues. The report itself states that "To fix a problem we must first have an accurate understanding of what is causing it."