Key facts
- Spain's snap election is scheduled for November 29.
- The People's Party (PP) is polling at 34%, ahead of the Socialists at 26%.
- The far-right Vox party is polling at 18%.
- Vox has partnered with the PP in several regional governments.
- The Ceuta migrant crisis and corruption cases involving Sánchez's inner circle are key issues.
- Housing affordability is a major concern for voters.
Spaniards face a November 29 snap election that will determine whether Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez secures another term or if a right-wing administration, potentially including the far-right Vox party, takes power.
Polls indicate the center-right People’s Party (PP) will lead with around 34% of the vote, slightly ahead of Sánchez’s Socialists at 26%. The far-right Vox party is polling at 18%. The PP's leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has indicated a willingness to govern with Vox, with whom the PP already shares power in several regions.
Sánchez's path to reelection relies on forming a parliamentary majority, a feat he achieved in 2023 with a coalition of far-left, regional, and separatist forces. However, his current junior coalition partner, Sumar, has seen a significant drop in support and is currently without a leader, making a similar alliance appear out of reach.
The far-right Vox party has grown into a significant political force over the past decade, moving from a fringe group to a plausible coalition partner for the PP. In regional governments where they have partnered, Vox has influenced policies on migration, the EU's Green Deal, violence against women, and LGBTQ+ protections.
Two key unresolved issues could significantly impact the election: the migrant crisis in Ceuta, which has raised questions about Spain's security readiness and its relationship with Morocco, and corruption allegations surrounding members of Sánchez's inner circle, including his wife, Begoña Gómez, and former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.
Despite Spain's strong economic growth and job creation figures, many households are struggling with rising inflation and housing costs. Housing activists have organized large-scale protests, and the Spanish Tenants’ Union could influence the election by endorsing a party or encouraging voter apathy. The union is demanding commitments on indefinite rental contracts, rent reductions, an end to evictions, and increased public housing.
Geopolitical factors, including the legacy of U.S. President Donald Trump's foreign policy, are also expected to play a role in shaping the electoral narrative.