Key facts
- Spain's People's Party and Vox could win 198 seats in the November 29 election, above the 176 needed for a majority.
- The People's Party is projected to win 31.9% of the vote, with the Socialists at 28.1%.
- The Socialists are projected to fall to 112 seats, down from 121 in the last election.
- Vox would double its support compared to the 2023 election.
- Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the early election after parliament rejected his government's housing proposals.
Spain's centre-right People's Party and far-right Vox are projected to win a combined parliamentary majority in the upcoming general election on November 29, according to two opinion polls published on Friday. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of the ruling Socialists called the snap election this week after parliament rejected his government's proposals to address a housing crisis.
A survey by El País newspaper indicated that the People's Party (PP) and anti-immigration party Vox would secure 198 seats, surpassing the 176-seat threshold required for a majority. This represents a significant increase from the 170 seats they collectively won in the 2023 election, with Vox expected to double its support.
The polls suggest the Socialists would see their seat count drop to 112 from 121 in the previous election. Their ability to govern would be further impacted by declining support for their far-left coalition partner, Sumar. An electoral defeat for the Socialists would mark the end of one of Europe's remaining left-leaning governments amid a broader rise in right-wing support across the region.
In terms of overall votes, the El País poll shows the PP leading with 31.9% support, followed by the Socialists with 28.1%. While both parties are expected to lose votes compared to 2023, the Socialists' decline is projected to be steeper.
A similar outcome was reported by El Confidencial, which forecasts 200 seats for the PP and Vox, potentially ushering a far-right party into the central government for the first time since Spain's return to democracy after the death of Francisco Franco in 1975.