Key facts
- Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon are gaining momentum ahead of the French presidential election.
- Le Pen would top the first round with 37% or 38% of the vote.
- Melenchon would come second with 18% or 18.5% of the vote.
- Centrist candidate Edouard Philippe would receive 17% of the vote.
- Centrist candidate Gabriel Attal would receive 11% of the vote.
- The first round of the presidential vote is scheduled for April 18, with the second round on May 2.
Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far-right, and her hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon are showing increased support ahead of the 2027 presidential election, according to a poll by Odoxa. The survey, conducted between September 24 and October 7 among 12,000 people, indicates a widening political polarization in France.
In the poll's scenarios, Le Pen is projected to win the first round with either 37% or 38% of the vote. Melenchon is expected to come in second with 18% or 18.5%. Both candidates were tested against centrist contenders Edouard Philippe, who garnered 17% in the poll, and Gabriel Attal, who received 11%.
Le Pen is predicted to defeat Melenchon comfortably in a run-off election. She is also expected to win against Philippe, though with a smaller margin. The poll suggests that the declining popularity of President Emmanuel Macron, who is nearing the end of his second term, has weakened the centrist political landscape in France.
Melenchon has previously run for president in 2012, 2017, and 2022, but has not advanced to the second round. Le Pen has also contested these elections, reaching the run-off in 2017 and 2022, where she lost to Macron.