Key facts
- First-grade enrollment for the 2027 academic year is projected to fall below 300,000, per KOSIS and KEDI data.
- The 2026 freshman class of 301,442 was the lowest since 1964, when the ministry began compiling the data.
- The 2027 figure is expected to be roughly one-fourth of the 1.05 million recorded in 1968.
- New first-grade enrollment is projected to keep shrinking until 2030 but stay above 200,000 as births rebounded in 2024.
The number of children entering elementary school in South Korea is expected to fall below 300,000 for the first time for the 2027 academic year, according to data compiled by the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and the Korean Educational Development Institute (KEDI). The projection covers first graders born in 2020.
Only 272,337 babies were born in 2020, down 10% from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Data and Statistics. A total of 301,442 students enrolled as elementary school freshmen in 2026, barely surpassing the 300,000 mark and marking the lowest level since 1964, when the ministry began compiling related data.
The figure is expected to fall further next year to roughly one-fourth of the 1.05 million recorded in 1968. The shrinking school-age population has raised concerns over school closures, particularly in rural areas, and a widening education gap between regions.
The number of new first graders is projected to continue shrinking until 2030, though the figure is expected to remain above 200,000 as childbirths rebounded in 2024. Births rose to 238,317 in 2024 and 254,341 in 2025, following years of decline.