Key facts
- Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a weekly low of eight vessels on Tuesday.
- Iran stated the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the U.S. meets its conditions.
- U.S. President Donald Trump asserted the U.S. has "total control over the Hormuz Strait."
- U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright claimed Middle East oil flows have normalized to pre-war levels.
- Data from Kpler and EIA suggests declining vessel traffic and constraints at the Strait, contradicting U.S. claims.
- Maritime intelligence reports indicate U.S. military operations support "shadow transits" through the strait.
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a weekly low as ship owners continue to avoid the critical Middle East chokepoint amid heightened security risks. Only eight vessels transited the waterway on Tuesday, the lowest number since August 5 and below the latest 10-day average of 12, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. The decline occurs as the U.S. and Iran offer contrasting claims about the Strait's navigability and oil flows. Iran stated on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the United States ends the war and meets Tehran’s conditions. Later that day, U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that the United States had “total control over the Hormuz Strait.” The U.S. also claimed that oil flows from the Middle East have hit pre-war levels, with U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stating that Sunday traffic alone was above pre-conflict averages and that nearly 9 million barrels per day are leaving the Strait of Hormuz, with total regional flows averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day. However, data from Kpler and the EIA suggests otherwise, indicating constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits and declining vessel traffic. Maritime intelligence providers report U.S. military "overwatch operations" support "shadow transits" through the strait, where vessels switch off their Automatic Identification System transmitters to avoid detection, transferring cargoes in the Gulf of Oman before returning for more oil. Even if a cease-fire materializes, Gulf exporters recognize that relying strictly on the Strait of Hormuz is a risk they can no longer take.