Key facts
- Preliminary shipping data indicates Hormuz Strait crossings were in single digits on Monday.
- Six commodity ships transited the strait on Monday, with three entering and three exiting the Gulf.
- The 10-day average for ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz is 11 vessels.
- No very large crude carriers or LNG tankers transited the strait.
- Tracking tanker movements is complicated by ships disabling transponders and covert military operations.
Preliminary shipping data indicates that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with single-digit crossings on Monday, despite a slight increase from the weekend. This data contradicts official assurances of a return to normal crude oil transit levels and is contributing to market skepticism and rising prices.
According to Kpler shiptracking data, six commodity ships transited the strait on Monday, with three entering and three exiting the Gulf. This figure is below the 10-day average of 11 ships. On Saturday, three ships passed through, and on Sunday, two ships transited the waterway. Notably, no very large crude carriers or tankers carrying liquefied natural gas were observed passing through.
Tracking tanker movements through the strait is complicated by several factors, including vessels potentially disabling their transponders to evade detection. Satellite imaging has also been compromised in certain areas, and the U.S. military is reportedly engaged in covert operations to facilitate tanker movements. Firms like Kpler have adapted their methodologies to monitor these flows amidst these challenges.
While some analysts acknowledge an increase in crude oil leaving the strait in recent months, with up to 5 million barrels per day recorded in July compared to 4 million in June, the exact volume remains uncertain due to an increasing number of 'dark transits.' Mason Hamilton of the American Petroleum Institute humorously described the situation as 'Schrödinger’s Strait' due to the monitoring complexities.