Key facts
- Extremist violence in Africa's Sahel region is projected to hit record levels in 2026.
- Acled data shows a significant increase in jihadist group activity in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
- Over 9,000 deaths were recorded from security incidents in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in 2025.
- Al-Qaida-linked Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State groups are expanding their influence.
- JNIM and the Tuareg-dominated rebel group Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched a joint offensive in Mali.
- Al-Qaida's senior leadership is described as 'marginalised' by a UN report.
Islamist extremist violence in Africa’s Sahel region is on track to reach historic highs this year, driven by a surge in activity from groups linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State, according to data compiled by conflict monitor Acled. This trend contrasts with a global decline in terrorism-related deaths, highlighting the Sahel as a new epicenter of militancy.
Acled's figures for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger show a dramatic increase in violence, from 63 incidents in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025, with over 2,145 events already recorded in the first part of 2026. The United Nations reported more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across these three countries in 2025 alone.
In April, the al-Qaida-linked JNIM, alongside the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), launched a significant offensive in Mali. This included attacks on strategic towns, government forces, and Russian auxiliaries, resulting in the deaths of Mali’s defense minister and the head of military intelligence. Rebels also seized control of Kidal after government forces and Russian mercenaries reportedly surrendered.
JNIM has continued to expand its influence in Mali and neighboring countries, engaging in clashes with rival groups and government forces. In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed over 130 attacks this year, with operations extending closer to the capital, Ouagadougou. In Niger, while JNIM has been less active, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara remains a significant presence.
Experts note that while these groups control large areas, they are largely localized and not planning external attacks on the US or Europe. Al-Shabaab, another potent al-Qaida affiliate, remains highly active in East Africa, responsible for over 10,000 deaths in the past 18 months. Meanwhile, Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), once considered the vanguard of the global movement, has seen a significant drop in activity.
Despite the concentration of militant activity in Africa, analysts suggest that the continent's role in al-Qaida's strategic planning has only recently grown, shifting from a focus on Afghanistan and Iraq. Factors such as sectarian conflict, resource competition, poor governance, and instability contribute to the fertile ground for recruitment. However, the territory controlled by groups like JNIM and al-Shabaab has limitations as a base for global campaigns.