Key facts
- United Russia secured 57.83% of the vote in Russian parliamentary elections.
- The election win grants United Russia a constitutional majority in the Duma.
- The EU and France criticized the elections for lacking free conditions and violating international law.
- Ukraine warns that Russia may launch a new mobilization wave following the election.
- Russia aims to capture all of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 or March 2027.
- Ukrainian intelligence estimates Russia needs to recruit around 300,000 personnel in 2026 and 2027 each for the war.
Russia's ruling United Russia party secured a constitutional majority in parliamentary elections, with preliminary results on September 21 showing the party winning nearly 58% of the vote. The outcome was widely considered predetermined, drawing criticism from the European Union and France for lacking free conditions and violating international law due to voting in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Following the election, attention is turning to whether Russia will launch a new mobilization wave, a move Kyiv has warned could occur. Ukrainian officials state that Russia remains committed to capturing all of Donetsk Oblast, with the Kremlin aiming for the end of 2026 and the military pushing for March 2027. To sustain the campaign, Russia will require more manpower, with Ukrainian intelligence indicating preparations to mobilize around 300,000 personnel in 2026 and 2027 each, in addition to the roughly 400,000 needed annually to replenish forces.
Contract recruitment has slowed, with approximately 234,000 people signing contracts between January and August this year, compared to 260,000 in the same period of 2025. Russia is estimated to be burning through manpower at a pace similar to its replacement rate. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in July that Russia had suffered nearly 225,500 casualties since the start of 2026, with total military casualties estimated by Ukrainian authorities at around 1.6 million, including about 700,000 killed.
Experts anticipate a more fragmented mobilization process this time, combining pressure on reservists, continued contract recruitment, and other measures without a formal announcement. Artem Klyga, a lawyer with the Movement of Conscientious Objectors, noted that authorities are trying to distance themselves from the word 'mobilization' and the fear associated with it. The visibility of any mobilization will depend on its scale, with smaller numbers potentially remaining hidden while significant increases would be difficult to conceal. Recruits would require two to four weeks of basic training. Russia is also better equipped to enforce summonses, with electronic notices legally considered delivered after seven days, and failure to appear can lead to restrictions on loans, driving rights, and property transactions. The voluntary contract recruitment system already includes various groups, and tighter control over military registration and new mechanisms for recruiting prisoners are anticipated.