Key facts
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimates 7 million b/d of crude and oil products are moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Chevron CEO Mike Wirth disputes this figure, suggesting actual traffic is lower.
- Visible commercial traffic through the strait in June averaged significantly less than 1 million b/d.
- Pre-war daily traffic averaged 130 ships, with Mideast crude flows around 14-15 million b/d.
- The US EIA does not expect traffic to recover to pre-war levels until at least early 2027.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that approximately 7 million barrels per day of crude and oil products are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a figure he described as a rising average. However, this estimate was met with skepticism by Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, who suggested the actual volume is lower.
Wright indicated that the current flow represents about half of the 14 million b/d supply gap created by the waterway's de facto closure since the start of the conflict, with several million barrels per day diverted through regional pipelines. He noted that a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) typically carries 2 million barrels, meaning his estimate equates to roughly 3.5 VLCCs daily.
Industry data from Kpler and Vortexa shows visible commercial traffic for Mideast Gulf crude exports through the strait in June has averaged between 226,000-330,000 b/d. Maritime consultancy Windward reported an average of four "dark" transits per day this week, where vessels turn off their Automatic Identification System data to avoid detection. This is a stark contrast to the pre-war period, when an average of 130 ships passed through the strait daily, with Mideast crude flows at 14-15 million b/d.
Despite potential diplomatic progress, ship operators remain hesitant to transit the Strait of Hormuz due to the high risk to seafarers, with 46 vessel attacks and 14 seafarer deaths reported since the conflict began. Sustained regional stability is deemed necessary for transits to rebound significantly. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts that traffic will not recover to pre-war levels until at least early 2027.