Key facts
- A tentative deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been announced, but maritime traffic recovery is expected to be slow.
- Security concerns, potential mines, and logistical backlogs are significant obstacles to resuming normal traffic.
- Experts estimate it could take weeks to months for traffic to recover, with some fertilizer and LNG capacity restoration taking up to two months.
- The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place until the deal is signed.
- Mine-clearing operations are expected to be a slow process, potentially taking up to six months.
Despite President Donald Trump's announcement of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic has seen minimal recovery, with significant obstacles preventing a swift return to pre-conflict levels. Analysis of ship-tracking data shows only a handful of vessels have transited the critical waterway since the announcement, while hundreds remain waiting in the Gulf.
Experts point to three primary reasons for the continued disruption: security concerns, the threat of mines, and potential tolls or fees. Iran had effectively closed the strait following US and Israeli strikes, and the US had imposed its own naval blockade, which remains in place until the deal is formally signed. This has created a "wait-and-see" mentality among ship captains and owners, hesitant to be the first to risk transit.
The threat of mines, including floating ones, has been a significant concern, with warnings issued by maritime centers. Clearing these mines is considered an essential first step, but experts estimate the process could take anywhere from 30 days to six months. The UK and France have dispatched naval vessels to the region to assist in mine-clearing operations.
Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has been a free passage. However, Iran has sought to assert control by establishing an authority to manage "safe passage permits." While Trump stated the strait would open "toll free," the long-term management of passage, potentially in coordination with Oman, remains a point of discussion.
In the interim, the repercussions are being felt across commodity markets. Fertilizer shipments may not resume immediately, with availability and prices potentially taking three to four months to normalize. Qatar, however, plans to restore 80% of its LNG export capacity within two months.