Key facts
- The OECD estimates rich countries will face Covid-related costs for another two decades.
- There is a 50% chance of another pandemic of similar scale within the next 25 years.
- Covid-19 caused nearly 7 million deaths from 2020 to May 2023.
- The global economy contracted nearly 4% in 2020 due to the pandemic.
- Without treatments or vaccines, a coronavirus-like outbreak could kill 1% of the population.
- A measles-like outbreak could cause GDP to shrink by 16.2%.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that wealthy nations may continue to bear the economic and health burdens of the Covid-19 pandemic for another two decades. The report, released on September 15, 2026, highlights that increased rates of smoking, alcohol consumption, and unhealthy eating, alongside interruptions in chronic disease care during the pandemic, continue to strain economies and health systems.
Furthermore, the OECD estimates there is a 50% probability of another pandemic of a similar scale occurring within the next 25 years. The report, which examines the economic rationale for pandemic preparedness, models various outbreaks, including those similar to Ebola, avian influenza, coronavirus, and measles, to assess their potential impact on health systems and economies. Without immediate interventions like treatments or vaccines, a coronavirus-like outbreak could result in 1% of the population dying and a 2.7% contraction in GDP. A measles-like outbreak could be far more severe, potentially causing a 16.2% GDP decline and significant loss of life.
The OECD emphasizes the critical role of early public health measures such as hand-washing, mask-wearing, and social distancing in mitigating the severity of health and economic consequences, thereby reducing the need for more drastic and costly interventions later.