Key facts
- A report by Onward suggests abandoning net zero could save UK households over £500 annually.
- The report's calculation focuses on electricity system costs, excluding heat, transport, and wider economic impacts.
- Onward's alternative pathway assumes reduced support for electric vehicles and heat pumps.
- The Climate Change Committee estimates typical household energy bills could fall by approximately £710 per year by 2050 with decarbonization.
- Climate change could cost Britain 3-4% of GDP annually by 2050 under current global policies.
A new report from the think tank Onward suggests that the UK could save households more than £500 annually by abandoning its statutory 2050 net-zero target and opting for an 'Alternative Policy Pathway' (APP). This APP would rely more heavily on gas and nuclear power, remove carbon pricing from electricity generation, and reduce spending on renewables, grid infrastructure, and balancing mechanisms. The report estimates cumulative power-system savings of £320 billion between 2030 and 2050 under this alternative.
However, critics argue that the £500 figure is misleading as it narrowly focuses on electricity system costs and excludes significant expenses related to heating, transport, and the wider economy. The APP also assumes a reduction in support for electric vehicles and heat pumps, leading to lower overall electricity demand but potentially higher household spending on fossil fuels. The report's authors acknowledge that their analysis does not forecast household electricity bills or broader energy costs.
In contrast, the Climate Change Committee's analysis suggests that typical household home-energy bills, excluding driving, could fall by approximately £710 per year by 2050 as renewable power expands and homes become more efficient. This transition, however, requires significant upfront investment in technologies like heat pumps and home upgrades. The committee's findings indicate that most household types would save money overall during the decarbonization transition due to lower electric driving costs.
Onward's analysis also relies on assumptions of relatively cheap future gas prices and significantly lower nuclear construction costs than recent British experience suggests. The report's authors acknowledge that offshore wind is no longer as cheap as previously forecast and that nuclear power can provide valuable low-carbon energy. The analysis also omits the significant costs associated with climate change, which a UK government assessment estimates could cost the country 3-4% of GDP annually by 2050.
Discussion