Key facts
- The IMF projects global economic output to expand by 3% in 2026.
- High oil and gas prices, mounting global debt, and stalled disinflation persist as risks.
- Austria's central bank expects its economy to grow by 0.5% this year, a 0.1 point reduction from its previous forecast.
- The Austrian central bank raised its forecast for 2027 economic growth to 1.3% from 1.1%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic output to expand by approximately 3% in 2026. This forecast acknowledges the global economy's resilience to energy shocks, better than initially feared, but warns of persistent high risks. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack highlighted ongoing high oil and gas prices, mounting global debt pressures, and a stalled disinflation process following the 2022 cost of living crisis. Despite rising global inflation expectations, these are expected to remain well-anchored over the longer run.
Separately, Austria's central bank, the OeNB, has trimmed its economic growth forecast for the country in 2026 to 0.5% from a previous prediction, citing a weaker-than-expected first six months. However, the OeNB raised its forecast for 2027 to 1.3% from 1.1%, stating that the economic outlook for the second half of 2026 has improved due to stronger global trade and improved sentiment in the domestic manufacturing sector. The central bank also lowered its inflation forecasts for Austria, expecting HICP to be 3% this year and 2.3% next year.