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Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows in Brazil election poll

Created at 3 Sep · 10:25 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

A Datafolha poll shows Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed ahead of the October election. In a simulated runoff, Lula holds 46% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 44%.

Key Numbers

46%Lula's projected runoff vote share
44%Flavio Bolsonaro's projected runoff vote share
2 percentage pointsDatafolha poll error margin
47%Lula's approval rating
50%Lula's disapproval rate
39%Lula's first-round vote share
33%Flavio Bolsonaro's first-round vote share

Who's Involved

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
Brazilian President and election candidate
Flavio Bolsonaro
Senator and election candidate, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro
Datafolha
Polling firm
Jair Bolsonaro
Former President of Brazil
Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows in Brazil election poll

↳ Why This Matters

The narrowing of President Lula da Silva's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro indicates a tightening race in Brazil's upcoming presidential election, potentially increasing uncertainty and voter engagement.

Key facts

  • Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed, according to a Datafolha poll.
  • In a simulated runoff, Lula is projected to receive 46% of the vote, while Bolsonaro has 44%.
  • This follows a trend seen in other recent polls, with Lula's lead shrinking.
  • In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 39% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 33%.

A Datafolha poll released on Thursday shows that the lead of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed ahead of the October election. In a simulated second-round runoff, Lula is projected to receive 46% of the vote, compared to 44% for Bolsonaro. This trend of a narrowing gap follows similar findings in other recent polls.

In a simulated runoff scenario in late August, Lula held a 47% to 43% lead over Bolsonaro. In July, the lead was 48% to 43%. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 39% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 33%.

Lula's approval rating has fallen to 47% from 49% in July, while his disapproval rate has risen to 50% from 48%. Senator Bolsonaro's poll numbers reportedly declined after it was revealed in May that he had asked a jailed banker to finance a film about his father. The Datafolha poll surveyed 2,058 people starting on August 18.

Frequently asked questions

Flavio Bolsonaro is a Senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. He is a candidate in the upcoming Brazilian presidential election.

The Datafolha poll has an error margin of two percentage points.

The Datafolha poll surveyed 2,058 people starting on August 18.

What Happens Next

01Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for October.

How It Developed

A Datafolha poll showed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed.
In a potential runoff scenario, Lula is seen with 46% of the vote against Bolsonaro's 44%.
A prior mid-August poll showed Lula with 47% and Bolsonaro with 43%.
In a simulated second-round runoff, Lula previously led Bolsonaro 47% to 43% in late August.
In July, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro 48% to 43% in a simulated runoff.
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 39% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (33%).
Lula's approval rating fell to 47% from 49% in July, while his disapproval rate rose to 50% from 48%.
Senator Bolsonaro's poll numbers fell after a request to finance a film about his father.

Sources

T1
Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll showsReuters
T2
Lula Retains Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro Ahead of Brazil Election ...usnews.com

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