Key facts
- Eli Lilly's oral weight-loss drug Foundayo has captured over 30% of new patients in the U.S.
- Novo Nordisk's Wegovy previously held an estimated 90% of the U.S. oral obesity market.
- Novo Nordisk expects oral drugs to represent over a third of GLP-1 weight-loss treatments by 2030.
- Analysts project the U.S. obesity treatment market to exceed $100 billion annually by 2030.
- Lilly's injectable GLP-1 obesity treatment Zepbound is also seeing patient preference in a US Medicare pilot program.
- 60% to 70% of patients in the Medicare pilot program are new to weight-loss treatments.
Eli Lilly announced on Monday that its oral weight-loss drug, Foundayo, has captured more than 30% of new patients in the U.S. market for oral obesity treatments. This development narrows the early lead previously held by Danish rival Novo Nordisk with its Wegovy pill. In August, Novo CEO Mike Doustdar estimated Wegovy had secured about 90% of the country's oral obesity market.
Investors are closely monitoring demand for oral obesity drugs, which are seen as a way to expand the weight-loss market by appealing to patients who prefer not to use injections and by potentially easing supply issues associated with injectable therapies. Novo Nordisk anticipates that oral drugs will constitute over a third of GLP-1 weight-loss treatment usage by 2030. Analysts project the overall obesity treatment market in the U.S. alone could reach more than $100 billion annually by that year.
Lilly's injectable GLP-1 obesity treatment, Zepbound, has also shown patient preference in the U.S. government's Medicare obesity drug pilot program, which began in July. According to Ilya Yuffa, Executive Vice President at Lilly, 60% to 70% of patients enrolled in this program, which offers eligible beneficiaries weight-loss drugs for a $50 monthly co-pay, are new to these treatments. Medicare covers approximately 66 million people, primarily those aged 65 and older or with disabilities.
Outside the U.S., Lilly faces competition from generic versions of Novo's Wegovy and Ozempic in markets like India and Canada, where these generics are priced up to 70% lower. However, Yuffa stated that these launches have expanded the overall market. He noted that while generic competition leads to share declines, the absolute volume for Mounjaro, Lilly's brand name for tirzepatide outside the U.S. for both obesity and diabetes, continues to grow in those markets.