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Novartis shares slide after second drug trial failure

Created at 8 Sep · 11:28 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Novartis shares fell sharply after its experimental drug for a muscle-wasting disorder failed a late-stage study, marking the second major trial setback in days and increasing pressure on CEO Vas Narasimhan's strategy.

Key Numbers

9%Novartis shares fall
$12 billionAvidity acquisition cost
$29.6 billionMarket value wiped off Novartis
$3.1 billionEstimated peak annual sales for del-desiran
60%Assigned chance of success for del-desiran by Barclays
30%Dyne Therapeutics shares fall
15.5%Sarepta Therapeutics shares fall
5% to 6%Projected compound annual sales growth (2025-2030)

Who's Involved

Novartis
Swiss drugmaker facing pipeline setbacks
Vas Narasimhan
CEO of Novartis under pressure
James Eugene
Analyst at Verso Investment Management
Shreeram Aradhye
Novartis President of Development and Chief Medical Officer
Stefan Schneider
Vontobel analyst
Avidity
Company acquired by Novartis for $12 billion
Dyne Therapeutics
Muscular dystrophy drug developer whose shares fell
Sarepta Therapeutics
Muscular dystrophy drug developer whose shares fell
Novartis shares slide after second drug trial failure

↳ Why This Matters

The repeated failures in late-stage clinical trials raise significant concerns about Novartis's ability to replenish its drug pipeline and meet future growth targets, potentially impacting its market valuation and strategic direction.

Key facts

  • Novartis' experimental drug del-desiran failed a Phase III study for myotonic dystrophy.
  • This is the second significant clinical trial failure for Novartis in less than a week.
  • The company's shares dropped approximately 9% following the announcement.
  • The failure of del-desiran, part of a $12 billion acquisition, raises concerns about Novartis' M&A strategy and pipeline.
  • Barclays analysts had projected peak annual sales of $3.1 billion for del-desiran.
  • Novartis reiterated its full-year financial guidance and long-term sales growth expectations.

Novartis shares experienced one of their worst trading days on record, falling approximately 9%, after its experimental drug del-desiran failed to meet its primary endpoint in a late-stage study for myotonic dystrophy. This setback follows another trial failure earlier in the week for a cholesterol drug, intensifying pressure on CEO Vas Narasimhan and his strategy to bolster the company's drug pipeline through acquisitions.

The failure of del-desiran, which Novartis acquired as part of a $12 billion deal for Avidity, was particularly disappointing as the drug was seen as a key prospect for a disease with no approved treatments. Analysts had assigned it a significant chance of success and projected substantial peak annual sales.

The clinical trial setbacks have also impacted other companies developing treatments for muscular dystrophy, with shares of Dyne Therapeutics and Sarepta Therapeutics declining sharply. Investors had been relying on del-desiran, along with other therapies like pelacarsen and remibrutinib, to drive future growth as Novartis faces patent expirations for older drugs.

Despite these challenges, Novartis reiterated its full-year financial guidance and maintained its long-term sales growth projections. The company's Chief Medical Officer acknowledged that developing therapies for complex diseases is challenging and that setbacks are an inherent part of scientific progress.

Frequently asked questions

The drug was del-desiran, an experimental treatment for myotonic dystrophy.

It is the second major trial setback in days, increasing pressure on the CEO's strategy to build the company's drug pipeline through acquisitions.

Novartis shares fell approximately 9%, marking one of its worst trading days on record, and wiping billions off its market value.

Despite the setbacks, Novartis reiterated its full-year guidance and expects sales to grow at a compound annual rate of 5% to 6% between 2025 and 2030.

What Happens Next

01Novartis will continue to assess the implications of the del-desiran trial failure.
02Focus will shift to the performance of other key pipeline drugs, such as remibrutinib.
03The company's M&A strategy will likely face increased scrutiny.
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How It Developed

Novartis' experimental drug del-desiran failed a late-stage study for myotonic dystrophy.
This marks the second major trial setback for Novartis in days.
Novartis shares fell approximately 9%, heading for one of its worst trading days.
The failure of del-desiran, acquired for $12 billion, increases pressure on CEO Vas Narasimhan's pipeline strategy.
Analysts noted the drug was expected to be a significant success, with peak annual sales estimated at $3.1 billion.
Shares of other muscular dystrophy drug developers, Dyne Therapeutics and Sarepta Therapeutics, also fell.
Novartis reiterated its full-year guidance and projected 5% to 6% compound annual sales growth from 2025 to 2030.
The company's cholesterol drug also failed a study the previous day.

Sources

T1
Novartis twin drug setbacks pile pressure on pipeline and CEOReuters

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