Jacinta Allan expected to face leadership challenge after Labor factions meet

However, if Allan were to contest a leadership ballot, a rule change implemented after the federal Labor instability of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era would necessitate a vote by the entire Victorian Labor membership, a process that could extend for weeks and has not been tested at the state level. A minister aligned with Allan dismissed the leaked meeting as an attempt to generate momentum for a spill, asserting that the Premier is "not going anywhere." Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny, a key supporter, characterized the leadership speculation as "idle gossip" that distracts from governing.

Allan assumed the premiership following Daniel Andrews' resignation in September 2023. Prior to parliament's winter break in June, momentum had been building for a leadership spill, fueled by poor polling, Allan's low personal approval ratings, rising support for One Nation, and concerns regarding organized crime's alleged infiltration of the state's Big Build project through the construction union. Allan, who previously oversaw transport infrastructure for the Big Build, has rejected calls for a royal commission into the matter.

At a press conference on June 15, Carroll had publicly ruled out a challenge, looking Allan in the eye and stating his support for her to be a "world-class premier." If elected leader, Carroll is understood to be prepared to immediately call for a royal commission, address the pay dispute with public school teachers, and bolster the party's economic standing.