Key facts
- Serbia's EU accession bid is complicating Ukraine's path to membership.
- Ukraine has opened two of six negotiating clusters for EU membership.
- Eight EU member states oppose opening the next accession cluster for Serbia due to rule of law and Russia sanctions concerns.
- Some EU countries, including France and Spain, support advancing Serbia's bid, citing reform progress.
- There is a risk that Serbia's accession progress could be linked to Ukraine's and Moldova's.
Serbia's own stalled bid for European Union membership is emerging as a significant complication for Ukraine's ongoing accession process. Western Balkan-friendly EU states are advocating for geographical balance and equal treatment among candidate countries, which could lead to linking Serbia's progress with that of Ukraine and Moldova.
Ukraine has recently made incremental progress, opening two of the six negotiating clusters required for EU membership. This advancement was facilitated by Hungary's new Prime Minister, Péter Magyar, who resolved bilateral issues with Kyiv concerning the Hungarian minority. However, Budapest still prefers a step-by-step approach to accession talks.
Despite Ukraine's progress, pressure is mounting from EU member states to accelerate enlargement in the Western Balkans, with a particular focus on Serbia. An EU diplomat noted the delicate balance between treating all candidates equally and linking progress across different geographical regions. The European Commission has again proposed opening Cluster 3 for Serbia, which has been stalled since December 2021, but eight member states have opposed it, citing concerns over Serbia's rule of law record and its alignment with sanctions against Russia.
Conversely, countries like France, Spain, and the "Friends of the Western Balkans" coalition (including Italy, Greece, Slovakia, Austria, Czechia, Croatia, and Slovenia) argue that Serbia has made substantial reforms justifying forward movement. The progress of other Western Balkan nations, such as Montenegro and Albania, further intensifies pressure on Serbia to demonstrate its own advancements.
Some EU member states, particularly those in the "Friends of the Western Balkans" group (excluding Croatia), believe geopolitical considerations are creating a double standard. There is a concern that Serbia's accession could become coupled with that of Ukraine and Moldova, meaning progress on one front would necessitate progress on another. While past attempts by Hungary to link Serbia and Ukraine failed, this coupling could resurface as pressure builds to open all clusters for Ukraine and Moldova by year's end.