Key facts
- A new poll indicates New Zealand's ruling coalition may narrowly win the upcoming election.
- The centrist Opportunity Party has gained significant ground, potentially securing parliamentary representation.
- Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has expressed openness to a referendum on the country's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system.
- The MMP system requires parties to achieve 5% of the party vote or win an electorate seat to gain parliamentary representation.
- Minor parties have historically played a crucial role in forming coalition governments in New Zealand.
A new poll suggests New Zealand's ruling coalition may narrowly retain its parliamentary majority in the upcoming November election. The Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll indicates the coalition, comprising the National Party, New Zealand First, and ACT, could secure 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament, a majority of just one seat. The poll also revealed a significant surge in support for the newly formed centrist Opportunity Party, which could potentially win eight seats if it clears the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. This marks the first time the Opportunity Party has surpassed this threshold. The opposition Labour Party is projected to lose five seats, with much of that support seemingly shifting to the Opportunity Party. Combined, Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori, and the Opportunity Party could garner 59 seats.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, leader of the National Party, has publicly stated that the Opportunity Party's policies, particularly on taxation, are incompatible with his party's platform, potentially limiting his coalition options. Luxon's own rating as preferred prime minister saw an increase of over four percentage points in the poll, making him the most popular choice for leader. The poll was conducted between August 1 and 4, surveying 1,000 voters. Notably, it was completed before Luxon indicated on Thursday his openness to a referendum on New Zealand's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system. This suggestion has created internal friction within the coalition, drawing criticism from New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who called the proposal 'inexplicable,' and opposition from ACT. New Zealand adopted the MMP system in 1996, replacing a first-past-the-post system, and voters reaffirmed their support for MMP in a 2011 referendum.