Key facts
- Iranian leaders are united on war strategy but divided on the ultimate goal.
- Hardliners, the 'Paydari' movement, oppose negotiation and seek total victory.
- President Pezeshkian and Speaker Qalibaf favor military pressure for a negotiated deal.
- A recent ceasefire agreement was approved by most of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
- The ceasefire has since broken down, with ongoing attacks and renewed US sanctions.
- State television has been used by hardliners to promote victory and denounce negotiators.
Iranian leaders are presenting a united front on their war strategy, aiming to demonstrate resilience against the United States and its allies. However, significant divisions exist within the leadership regarding the ultimate objective of the conflict. Hardliners, identified with the 'Paydari' movement, oppose any negotiation with the US and advocate for total victory, seeking to impose the Islamic Republic's control over society.
Conversely, factions supporting President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf view military pressure as a means to achieve a negotiated settlement with the US. This group is also motivated by concerns over the economic costs of the war and the need to adapt to social changes within the country. An advisor to Qalibaf noted that negotiation serves as a political tool to coerce the enemy into making real concessions.
The unusually open rivalry among the leadership suggests a struggle for control over Iran's future direction. The position of the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains a key uncertainty, with both sides claiming his endorsement. Reports indicate he was injured in an attack that killed his father on February 28.
A ceasefire agreement reached with the US in April received strong backing from 12 out of 13 members of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, including senior commanders from the Revolutionary Guard and armed forces. Saeed Jalili is widely believed to be the sole dissenter against this agreement.
However, the ceasefire has since deteriorated, with both sides engaging in retaliatory attacks. Iran is also pressing to control the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas trade. Frustration over the non-fulfillment of financial promises, such as the release of billions in frozen assets, has led to the reimposition of US sanctions.
Hardliners have utilized public gatherings and state-controlled television (IRIB) to fuel opposition to negotiations, portraying Iran as on the path to total victory and denouncing those who seek compromise with the US. State television has interrupted broadcasts of Qalibaf discussing negotiations and Pezeshkian discussing resuming talks with the US. Pezeshkian's office has criticized IRIB for censoring the president and exacerbating divisions during wartime. Hardliners have also sought to bolster their influence through measures such as closing cafes popular with residents, where social norms have been challenged.