Key facts
- Opinion polls cited by Reuters showed Democrats likely to take the House, with the Senate too close to call.
- The S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Tuesday, and options traders expected a 1% move on Wednesday, per the report.
- Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert said equity reaction was likely positive if Republicans held the Senate.
Investors were watching the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, with opinion polls indicating Democrats were likely to take the House while the Senate was too close to call, according to a Reuters report. President Donald Trump's Republican Party had controlled both chambers of Congress during the first two years of his second term.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Tuesday, and options traders expected a 1% move on Wednesday as they awaited results, the report said. It said the outcome could affect the AI data-center buildout, the US fiscal outlook, defense spending and regulation in healthcare, banking and cryptocurrencies.
Scott Chronert, US equity strategist at Citigroup, said in a research note ahead of voting that probabilities increasingly favored a Democratic sweep, while several tightly contested Senate races left open the possibility of Republican control or a larger Democratic foothold. He said equity market reaction was likely positive in the former case and negative in the latter.