Key facts
- The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the current El Niño event to surpass previous records in strength.
- The UN weather agency warns the El Niño has the potential to significantly impact global communities and economies.
- Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are forecast to peak over 3C above average, exceeding the previous record of 2.6C in 1983.
- Preliminary research suggests climate change has made an event of this magnitude six times more likely.
- Australia's winter was the third-warmest on record, with specific regions experiencing their hottest winters.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecasts the current El Niño event to become the strongest on record, with the potential to persist until early 2027. The United Nations weather agency has warned of significant global impacts from this strengthening phenomenon, which is already breaking heat records.
According to the BoM, the El Niño is expected to peak in late spring or summer and reach levels exceeding those observed since reliable records began in 1950. While El Niño events typically lead to hotter and drier conditions in Australia's south and east, increasing the risk of heatwaves, drought, and bushfires, the bureau notes that the strength of an El Niño does not always correlate with stronger effects on the continent.
However, analysis of the current event indicates a rapid escalation. Felicity Gamble, a senior climatologist at the BoM, stated that the rate of warming observed in the last two months has been faster than any other recorded event. August sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are expected to be between 2.2C and 2.3C above average, higher than any previous August since 1950. Forecasts suggest these temperatures could peak over 3C above average, surpassing the previous record of 2.6C in January 1983. The warming of over 2C in the Niño 3.4 region between February and July is also unprecedented in the historical record.
Climate experts anticipate that the combination of El Niño and climate change will likely push global temperatures to record highs next year. In the Pacific region, El Niño is already contributing to droughts, food and water shortages, and wildfires in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. This past winter was Australia's third-warmest on record, and the hottest for New South Wales, Tasmania, and Victoria.
Preliminary research from the University of Melbourne suggests that climate change has made an event of this magnitude six times more likely. Dr. Andrew King, a co-author of the study, indicated that a human fingerprint is likely present in the extreme conditions, describing the situation as "alarming." The BoM's long-range forecast predicts below-average rainfall for southern and eastern Australia from September to November, with above-average temperatures likely south of the tropics.