Key facts
- Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill suggested a current interest rate hike could prevent more aggressive future action.
- Pill warned that a 'wait and see approach' could unleash hard-to-contain inflation.
- British businesses expect price growth of 3.8% in the coming 12 months, down from 3.9%.
- Year-ahead wage growth expectations remained at 3.4%.
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill has cautioned against a 'wait and see' approach to interest rates, warning that delaying action could allow inflation to become more entrenched. Speaking to business leaders, Pill suggested that proactive and decisive rate hikes are necessary to manage emerging inflationary risks, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in the Gulf which has driven up energy prices. He indicated that the Bank needed to act 'clearly, promptly and decisively' at its upcoming September 17th meeting. In July, Pill was one of three members of the Monetary Policy Committee who voted to raise the central bank's key interest rate, but the majority decided to maintain it at 3.75%. Minutes from that meeting revealed Pill's concern about an 'insidious' wage-price spiral if rates remained on hold for too long, leading to inflation that is 'more lasting and create greater intrinsic inflation persistence'. Market participants are currently pricing in a low probability for a rate hike at the September meeting, with a higher likelihood anticipated for November. A monthly survey by the Bank of England showed that British businesses expect to increase their prices slightly less quickly in the year ahead, with price growth expected at 3.8% in the coming 12 months, down from 3.9% in the previous survey. Expectations for year-ahead wage growth held steady at 3.4%.