All NewsEducationTVBrokers
Equities & FundsCrypto & Digital AssetsAI & TechnologyBusiness & CorporateUS Politics & PolicyGeopolitics & Global RiskMacro, Rates & FXCommodities & EnergyEuropean Politics & MarketsAsia-PacificReal Estate & Property
All NewsHome
← Back to Commodities & Energy

Diesel prices emerge as key issue for Democrats in red states

Created at 1 Sep · 12:11 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Elevated diesel prices, despite falling gasoline and crude oil costs, present a potential challenge for Democrats in red states. The White House is pushing back on claims that its policies worsened the situation, highlighting initiatives like the "Freedom Hauler" program.

Key Numbers

10 percentbelow year-ago diesel fuel inventories
4 percentof overall food costs from transportation
$4.08per gallon average gasoline price
3 million barrels a dayrefinery capacity taken offline by Iranian attacks

Who's Involved

Kush Desai
White House spokesperson
David L. Ortega
Professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University
Nicholas Jacobs
Professor at Colby College writing on rural and working-class voters

↳ Why This Matters

Elevated diesel prices directly impact transportation costs, affecting the price of goods like dairy and produce, and could become a significant pocketbook issue for voters in red states, potentially influencing election outcomes.

Key facts

  • Diesel fuel inventories are nearly 10 percent below year-ago levels.
  • Gasoline prices are the highest ever for this late in the year, with August averaging over $4 per gallon daily.
  • The White House is promoting its "Freedom Hauler" program to address workforce needs.
  • Transportation costs are a significant factor for dairy and produce prices.
  • Iranian actions have impacted refinery capacity in the Middle East.
  • Diesel prices are emerging as a significant issue for Democrats in red states, potentially impacting elections this fall. While gasoline and crude oil prices have moderated, diesel fuel inventories remain nearly 10 percent below year-ago levels. Gasoline prices have reached record highs for this late in the year, with August consistently averaging over $4 per gallon nationally.

    The White House has pushed back against the notion that its policies have exacerbated the truck driver shortage, instead pointing to initiatives like the "Freedom Hauler" program aimed at recruiting veterans. Experts note that while transportation costs are a relatively small portion of overall food expenses, they have a larger impact on dairy and produce.

    Analysts suggest that high diesel prices could incentivize refiners to increase production of this more profitable fuel as demand from the summer driving season wanes. The current energy crisis, stemming from a bottleneck in refining capacity rather than crude oil supply, is also linked to geopolitical factors, including past Iranian actions that disrupted refinery operations in the Middle East.

    Frequently asked questions

    Diesel prices are a 'sleeper issue' because they directly affect the cost of transporting goods, impacting everyday consumer prices, and could become a significant factor for voters in upcoming elections, particularly in red states.

    The White House has stated that its policies have not worsened the truck driver shortage and highlighted the "Freedom Hauler" program, designed to recruit more veterans into the trucking industry.

    While gasoline prices are at record highs for this late in the year, diesel fuel inventories are significantly below year-ago levels, indicating a tighter supply for diesel.

    Transportation costs represent about 4 percent of overall food costs, but this percentage is larger for perishable items like dairy and produce.

    What Happens Next

    01Refiners may shift production towards more profitable diesel fuel.
    02Democrats may attempt to capitalize on diesel prices as a campaign issue.
    CME Headlines
    • WTI Crude Oil futures hold near $86 as Middle East tensions persist.
      31 Aug · 8:48 PM
    • WTI Crude Oil futures hold near $86 as Middle East tensions persist.
      31 Aug · 8:48 PM
    • Gold futures fall below $4,500 as Treasury yields rise.
      31 Aug · 8:34 PM

    How It Developed

    Diesel fuel inventories are nearly 10 percent below year-ago levels.
    Gasoline prices are the highest ever for this late in the year.
    August national average gasoline prices have exceeded $4 per gallon daily.
    High diesel prices could incentivize refiners to shift production.
    Transportation costs represent about 4 percent of overall food costs.
    The White House highlighted its "Freedom Hauler" program for veterans.
    Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East impacted refinery capacity.

    Sources

    T1
    A “sleeper issue” in red states this fall: Diesel pricesPolitico

    Related Stories

    EPA grants 1.76 billion biofuel exemptions to small refiners
    31 Aug · 9:06 PM
    India's Oil Buying Driven by Price, Not Politics: ONGC Chief
    1 Sep · 9:55 AM
    China Coking Coal Prices Surge Record 46% in August Amid Supply Woes
    31 Aug · 3:56 PM
    Oil Prices Climb as Trump Threatens New Strikes on Iran
    31 Aug · 4:35 PM
    Russian Oil No Longer India’s Easy Bargain as Supply Dwindles
    31 Aug · 8:46 PM