Key facts
- Australia's 2025-26 winter crop production is forecast to reach 68.4 million tonnes, a 13% increase.
- This production level is the second highest on record and 15% above the five-year average.
- Revisions to winter crop production in Western Australia and Victoria were upward.
- Summer crop production for 2025-26 is projected to decrease by 14% to 4.5 million tonnes.
- For 2026-27, winter crop production is forecast to fall 12% to 61 million tonnes, the fourth largest on record.
- Summer crop production for 2026-27 is forecast to decline 25% to 3.4 million tonnes.
Australia's winter crop production for the 2025-26 season has been revised upward, with forecasts now indicating an increase of 13% to 68.4 million tonnes. This revised figure positions the crop as the second largest on record and 15% above the five-year average. The upward revision is largely due to higher-than-anticipated yields, particularly in Western Australia and Victoria, where production estimates were increased by 2% and 11% respectively from earlier forecasts.
Despite the positive outlook for winter crops, summer crop production is expected to decline. For the 2025-26 season, summer crop output is forecast to fall by 14% to 4.5 million tonnes, influenced by reduced irrigation water availability and hot, dry conditions. Sorghum production is predicted to decrease by 6% to 2.5 million tonnes, and cotton lint production is forecast to drop by 17% to 1 million tonnes, with rice production seeing a significant 66% decrease.
Looking ahead to the 2026-27 season, national winter crop production is forecast to decrease by 12% to 61 million tonnes, which would still rank as the fourth largest on record. This forecast reflects favorable conditions in South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales, partially offset by less favorable conditions in Western Australia and northern New South Wales and Queensland. Summer crop production for 2026-27 is projected to fall by 25% to 3.4 million tonnes.