Key facts
- US diesel prices have hit an all-time high, driving middle distillate cracks above outright crude prices.
- ICE Brent crude is nearing $95 per barrel, with a 6% weekly gain.
- OPEC+ is expected to maintain current production quotas due to geopolitical constraints.
- Europe's benchmark gas futures TTF reached a three-year high above €72 per MWh.
- US natural gas futures hit an eight-week high of $2.96 per MMBtu.
- Spot gold prices fell over 2% to below $4,400 per ounce following robust US jobs data.
Record diesel prices, driven by tightening middle distillate supplies, are pushing Brent crude toward $95 per barrel, with US diesel prices reaching an all-time high. Middle distillate cracks are now higher than outright crude prices, contributing to a 6% weekly gain for ICE Brent.
OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production quotas at 31.01 million b/d for October 2026, pausing the unwinding of supply cuts until at least 2027 due to the US-Iran war impacting Middle Eastern producers. Saudi Aramco has kept its October selling price to Asia at a $2 per barrel discount to Oman/Dubai, the lowest since June 2020.
In Venezuela, the US has stated that China will have no debt claims on revenue from new output as Chevron prepares a $7 billion expansion, despite Caracas owing Beijing approximately $10 billion in oil debt. The US is also proposing to allow oil companies access to 5,200 acres of federal lands in Utah's Uinta basin.
US natural gas futures hit an eight-week high of $2.96 per MMBtu, with LNG feedgas flows recovering and unseasonably warm weather sustaining cooling demand. Europe's benchmark gas futures TTF soared past €72 per MWh, the highest since December 2022, due to stalled Qatari LNG exports and competition with Asia. Bangladesh paid nearly $100 million for a single LNG cargo at $28.03/MMBtu to alleviate nationwide blackouts.
The US national average diesel price reached $5.85 per gallon, with nationwide stocks at a record seasonal low despite refiners operating at maximum capacity. Indonesia has invited Russian firms to invest in its oil and gas exploration sector, targeting increased production by 2030. Argentina plans sanctions against developers of the Sea Lion oil field offshore the Falkland Islands.
Nigeria's Dangote group is planning Africa's largest IPO to raise $1.5 billion for refinery expansion. The US Treasury has sanctioned three Turkish financial firms for alleged transactions with Iran. Indonesia's largest nickel processing hub warned of potential output cuts due to drought, which could tighten global supplies. Spot gold prices fell over 2% to below $4,400 per ounce following strong US August payrolls data.