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US Diesel Prices Near April Peak Amid Supply Shocks

Created at 2 Sep · 7:16 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

US diesel prices are nearing their April peak, reaching $5.69 per gallon, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. These factors are constricting global refining capacity and exports.

Key Numbers

$5.69US average retail diesel price
$6diesel price approaching nationally
$4gasoline price approaching politically sensitive level
$108NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread at peak
7 million barrels per dayglobal refinery runs down from last year
6 million barrels per daybelow seasonal norms for refinery runs since March

Who's Involved

President Trump
summoned top US refining executives to increase production
Justinus Steinhorst
UBS analyst commenting on oil and yields
Daan Struyven
Goldman commodity expert warning on refinery runs
Kelly Chen
DNB Carnegie senior economist on China's refining capacity
US Diesel Prices Near April Peak Amid Supply Shocks

↳ Why This Matters

Soaring diesel prices have broad economic implications, increasing costs for transportation, agriculture, and construction, which can reignite food inflation, dampen consumer sentiment, and pressure businesses.

Key facts

  • The average retail price for diesel in the US has reached $5.69 per gallon.
  • This price is close to the April peak, the highest since mid-2022.
  • Escalating US-Iran conflict is disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are reducing global fuel supply.
  • President Trump urged US refining executives to increase diesel and gasoline production.

U.S. diesel prices are nearing their April peak, reaching $5.69 per gallon, as a confluence of geopolitical events and supply constraints tightens the global market. The industrial fuel's price surge is attributed to escalating US-Iran tensions that are disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries which are limiting exports from a major global supplier.

These disruptions are occurring against a backdrop of already limited spare refining capacity. President Trump has met with top US refining executives, urging them to boost diesel and gasoline production ahead of the November midterm elections, as gasoline prices also creep above $4 per gallon.

The impact is being felt in commodity markets, with the NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread breaching $108 per barrel. Analysts note that global refinery runs have been significantly below seasonal norms, with China being one of the few countries possessing sufficient spare capacity to potentially alleviate the strain, though Beijing shows little incentive to do so.

Frequently asked questions

The nationwide average retail price for diesel has reached $5.69 per gallon.

Escalating US-Iran conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are key factors, alongside limited global refining capacity.

This spread, tracked as HOCL1 Index, indicates strong demand for refined products relative to crude oil, suggesting tight refining margins and product availability.

China possesses significant spare refining capacity that could potentially ease global supply constraints, but it appears to lack the incentive to do so.

What Happens Next

01Monitor further developments in the US-Iran conflict and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz.
02Observe potential changes in Russian refinery output and Ukrainian attack patterns.
03Track US refinery production levels in response to presidential pressure.
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How It Developed

US diesel prices reached $5.69 per gallon, nearing April's peak.
US-Iran conflict has deepened, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are constraining fuel exports.
Global refining capacity is limited, exacerbating supply issues.
President Trump met with refining executives to urge increased production.
The NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread breached $100 per barrel.
Global refinery runs are significantly below seasonal norms.

Sources

T1
U.S. Diesel Prices Close In on April War PeakOilPrice.com

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