Key facts
- Decision Desk HQ projected that Democrats will win control of the US House of Representatives.
- The projection was published on X on November 4, 2026.
- A separate analysis put Democrats' odds of controlling both chambers at 56 percent and Republicans at 44 percent.
Democrats will win control of the US House of Representatives, according to a projection by Decision Desk HQ published on X on November 4, 2026. The post gave no seat count and no margin.
A separate pre-election analysis, published before polls closed, put the race in different terms. It gave Democrats a 55.6% chance of controlling both chambers and Republicans a 44.4% chance, and said Decision Desk HQ expected Democrats to win around 241 House seats and 52 Senate seats, one more than needed for a majority. The same analysis said forecasting models and prediction markets had grown more confident of a Democratic sweep, with Polymarket at 75% and Kalshi at 74%.
The analysis also cautioned that polling had overstated Democratic support in some past cycles, and that a similar error could leave the Senate in Republican hands and the House closer than expected. It listed eight Senate seats in lean or toss-up categories: Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, Maine and Nebraska.