Key facts
- Donald Trump cited a Census Bureau report alleging over 24,000 noncitizens voted in the 2020 election.
- Experts criticize the report's methodology, citing potential for false positives due to data matching issues.
- The Census Bureau report is described as a 'beginning analysis' and lacks methodological transparency.
- The identified number of noncitizen voters is statistically insignificant compared to the total votes cast.
- The report's findings would not have been sufficient to change the outcome of the 2020 election in any state.
President Donald Trump has pointed to a U.S. Census Bureau report as evidence that thousands of noncitizens voted in the 2020 election. The report, described as a 'beginning analysis,' stated that over 24,000 individuals were linked to administrative records indicating noncitizen status at the time of the election, out of nearly 160 million voter records reviewed.
However, election experts and policy analysts have widely criticized the report's methodology, suggesting it is flawed and prone to generating false positives. Concerns include potential errors in commercial voter files, federal records, and the matching process itself. Mark Lindeman of Verified Voting called the methodology description the weakest he had ever seen from the Census Bureau, suggesting the report functions as propaganda rather than credible analysis.
Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Elections Research Center, agreed that the report lacks the rigor and transparency expected from the Census Bureau, noting it is unsigned and relies on data from an unfamiliar private company. Justin Levitt, a law professor, highlighted potential errors in record linkage, such as misassigned addresses or outdated citizenship statuses.
Even if the report's numbers were accurate, they would represent a tiny fraction of the total votes cast in 2020 and would not have been sufficient to alter the election's outcome in any state. David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, stated that the identified noncitizen voters represent only 0.015% of the total vote and would not have changed the winner of any state. Trump also used the report to advocate for the SAVE America Act, which would impose stricter voter identification and proof-of-citizenship requirements nationwide.