Key facts
- Australian wheat production forecast at 32.0 million metric tons for 2026/27, down 11.1% from the previous year.
- Barley production is projected to reach a record 17.7 million metric tons, a 4.4% increase year-on-year.
- Wheat exports are forecast at 25.0 million metric tons, supported by carryover stocks.
- Barley exports could reach a record 13.0 million metric tons, driven by Chinese demand.
- Sorghum production forecast at 2.3 million metric tons after improved rainfall.
Australia's grain outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year shows mixed prospects, with record barley production expected to offset a decline in wheat output. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts wheat production to fall 11.1% to 32.0 million metric tons due to reduced planting and weather concerns, while barley output is projected to reach a record 17.7 million metric tons. Higher fertilizer costs and anticipated moisture stress are encouraging farmers to shift acreage towards barley. Sorghum production prospects have improved to 2.3 million metric tons following widespread rainfall. Wheat exports are forecast at 25.0 million metric tons, and barley exports could reach a record 13.0 million metric tons, with China being a key buyer.