Key facts
- A strengthening El Niño is suppressing storm development in the Atlantic hurricane season.
- Increased vertical wind shear caused by El Niño disrupts tropical systems.
- As of mid-August, the Atlantic Basin had seen two named storms and zero hurricanes.
- NOAA predicts a 75% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
- The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season typically occurs in September.
- By September 10, 2026, the season had experienced its slowest start since 1966 in terms of accumulated cyclone energy.
The Atlantic hurricane season is experiencing an unusually quiet period in 2026, with forecasters attributing the lack of storm development primarily to a strengthening El Niño. This climate pattern, occurring in the Pacific Ocean, significantly impacts Atlantic hurricane formation by increasing vertical wind shear, which disrupts the organization and strengthening of developing tropical systems.
As of mid-August, the Atlantic Basin had seen only two named storms, Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha, neither of which escalated into a hurricane. Recent outlooks from the National Hurricane Center have indicated little immediate tropical development expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. This quiet period is notable given that it is approaching the historical peak of the hurricane season.
NOAA's updated outlook on August 6 predicted a below-normal season, forecasting 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes. The agency stated there is a 75% chance the season will finish below normal, compared to a typical season which averages 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Notably, NOAA's outlook included the possibility of the season ending without a single major hurricane, a highly unusual occurrence.
Despite the quiet start, the most active period of hurricane season is still ahead, with over 85% of Atlantic tropical cyclones forming during August, September, and October. The climatological peak of the season is around September 10. Even in a below-normal season, the potential for a damaging or deadly hurricane remains, and residents are urged to continue preparing for potential storms.
By September 10, 2026, the Atlantic hurricane season was experiencing its quietest start in at least 60 years, with a record-long wait for its first hurricane. The National Hurricane Center's outlook map showed no areas being monitored for potential development, a situation more typical of earlier or later months. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a measure of storm activity, was at its slowest pace since at least 1966, comparable to a mid-July period rather than the peak of hurricane season.